Dave said to be coming under pressure to abandon the coalition now

Dave said to be coming under pressure to abandon the coalition now

Good idea or not?

A short-term problem is that if the coalition broke down in circumstances like this then the blues would be seen as the “guilty party” and there might be a price to pay.

Getting commons business through without the LD vote might be very tricky and the government could look a shambles like the final days of the Callaghan government in 1979.

A bigger longer term issue is that given electoral situation it s hard to see the Tories in a position to govern alone. Coalition or other possible arrangements are the most likely post-GE15 outcome. To have broken off from the yellows might not send a good message to other post-election partners like the DUP. It would also make any post election deal with the LDs more difficult to achieve

The LDs would likely benefit if the blues were seen to do the dirty on them.

Clearly the next few months are going to be difficult for all but staying together might be the lesser of two evils.

Mike Smithson

2004-2014: The view from OUTSIDE the Westminster bubble


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