The big picture is that Cameron’s Conservatives continue to lose much more to UKIP than Miliband’s LAB
While that remains the Tories are heading for defeat
After a massive polling Saturday and the ongoing speculation about Ed Miliband let’s step back for a moment and look at the wider picture.
The chart above is from the latest batch of Lord Ashcroft’s CON-LAB marginals polling with an aggregate sample about three times as large as all the data that came out overnight. It highlights the big development that appears not to be going away – the rise of UKIP.
It shows where the current UKIP vote in the key marginals is coming from a picture that is broadly unchanged on recent months. For all the Farage spin his party is a much bigger threat to the Tories than LAB. The reason why the Tories are doing so poorly in the marginals is that they’ve lost a lot of votes to the purples.
In eleven days time, if the polling is right and there’s been no change, the Tories will lose Rochester to UKIP adding further fuel to the purple surge and possibly encouraging other Tory MPs to jump ship as well,
In all of this LAB has simply to hold its nerve which it doesn’t appear to be doing this weekend.