The great CON Rochester primary mystery – how the reported turnout of 4,000 became 5,688
Why aren’t we getting the full numbers like in Totnes in 2009?
Totnes CON primary result 2009. All vote detail including spoilt ballots. Why not same for Rochester one? pic.twitter.com/yrKclLtJN7
— Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) October 24, 2014
The first news that all was not well with the CON Rochester primary was this report, now not on the Spectator site, from the usually well informed Isabel Hardman.
How the Speccie's Isabel Hardman first reported Rochester CON primary result. pic.twitter.com/iDo1h9LhCz
— Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) October 24, 2014
An hour or so later were told that “Kelly Tolhurst wins Tories’ postal primary Rochester & Strood with 50.44% to Anna Firth’s 49.56%. 5,688 ballots returned.”
That was an odd way to present the figures. Why not , as in the 2009 primaries, give the full numbers with the total of spoilt papers? The fact that we are not getting this detail raises my suspicions.
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Could it be that Hardman’s original 4,000 figure was the correct number of valid votes and that it was decided to present the outcome as being a little bit better for the party by talking of the number of ballots returned with the actual candidate totals presented as percentages.
If the turnout is based on number of valid votes then 4,000 would make it about 5.3% not the 7.5% that talking about ballots returned suggests.
Given the controversy surrounding the whole election and the primary itself it would not be surprising if Rochester voters hostile to the Tories spoilt their ballots before popping them in the return paid envelopes and posting them.
It would have been far better for the party to have come clean about the actual numbers last night rather than allow these questions to be raised.