The first general election after the AV referendum looks set to see unprecedented levels of tactical voting
The detail of possible tactical voting in CON-LD battles from today's YouGov pic.twitter.com/iMgKVhPsdx
— Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) October 12, 2014
The detail of possible tactical voting in LAB-CON & LAB-LD battles from today's YouGov pic.twitter.com/4DNlTvykCg
— Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) October 12, 2014
Many electors will vote AGAINST LAB/CON/LD/UKIP rather than FOR
Reproduced above is some fascinating data from today’s YouGov/ST poll on questions which try to tease out how people would cast their ballots if their party of choice didn’t look like winning in their constituency.
The responses above are broadly in line with what Lord Ashcroft has found with his marginals polling when he asks his two stage voting question.
What YouGov didn’t cover, which is highly relevant after the Heywood & Middleton by-election, is what voters would do when the two most likely winners in a constituency are LAB and UKIP.
For me the surprising numbers relate to CON voters tactically voting LD in yellow-red encounters. This runs in the face of previous elections where there’s been very little ANTI-LAB tactical voting.
All of this is going to make GE15 extraordinarily difficult to poll. It’s also going to create problems for the standard seat calculators.