Detailed data from Survation for Southern England has UKIP on 37.6% four pts ahead of the Tories

— Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) October 11, 2014

Survation/MoS poll has 30.3% of men backing UKIP compared with 18.9% of women

— Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) October 11, 2014

The big polling question tonight is why there’s such a big difference in the UKIP shares. Opinium 17%, YouGov 16% with Survation on 25%.

Chart updated to include Survation with UKIP on record 25% for any poll and YouGov for Sunday Times.

For ICM’s Wisdom Index those sampled are not not asked who they’d vote for but to give their predictions of party %ages, At GE10 it was said to have been more accurate than any other poll.

The Opinium poll has changes of CON -4, LAB +1, LD +2, UKIP n/c, GRN n/c. Most of the fieldwork took place BEFORE Thursday’s by-elections. I’d expect any surveys polled afterwards to show UKIP boost.

How UKIP's post by-election Survation compares with when the SDP was at its height. Chart from Dec 1981 pic.twitter.com/t0u5xIeWAK

— Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) October 11, 2014