Possibly not good news for the Scottish separatists: the final two polls to be completed have NO with the largest leads
Final @IpsosMORI phone poll has
YES 47
NO 53
This is same as @Survation phone poll where fieldwork finished at 9pm last night
— Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) September 18, 2014
@IpsosMORI poll carried out Monday & Tues had 2% NO lead
The one completed last night had 6% NO lead.
— Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) September 18, 2014
So the last poll is out. The Ipsos-MORI phone survey completed yesterday evening has a 6% lead. That compares with a 2% lead in its poll for STV published yesterday evening and based on fieldwork carried out Monday and Tuesday.
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What’s striking is that the latest Ipsos-MORI split is the same as the latest Survation phone poll split where fieldwork ended at 9pm last night
If this is not just statistical noise, as it could be, then it is positive for NO and not good news for the separatists.
Ipsos-MORI has a long tradition of seeking to have the final poll at general elections on the grounds that it wants to be able to pick up late swings.
46% tell @IpsosMORI final poll that NO will win
30% say YES
— Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) September 18, 2014
@IpsosMORI found 95% of Scots say they are certain to vote today, including 90% of those aged 16-24
— Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) September 18, 2014