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Month: July 2014

Vote UKIP get a LAB government might not have the potency that many Tories think it has

Vote UKIP get a LAB government might not have the potency that many Tories think it has

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CON & LAB governments running neck and neck as preferred outcome amongst UKIP voters You hear it all the time from the Blue teams when talking about the Ukip threat – that when faced with the prospect of a LAB government a large proportion will “come back home” and vote Tory. That was a view that I broadly shared until last night before my detailed study of the aggregate data from the latest 14k sample Ashcroft marginals polling focused on…

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The Tories drop to their lowest point ever in a ComRes phone poll in tonight’s survey for the Indy

The Tories drop to their lowest point ever in a ComRes phone poll in tonight’s survey for the Indy

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And LAB moves to 6% lead with YouGov For whatever reason see section the regular phone polls are tending to produce more extreme figures than online firms and so it is with tonight’s ComRes phone poll for the Independent. The Tory share is down to 27% with Ukip dropping only a point to 17%. ComRes, like almost all pollsters at the moment, had their usual crop of Miliband questions using the agree/disagree format. Asked whether Ed puts them off voting…

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Charting the Populus “Monday effect” – the day the LAB lead is generally up on the previous Friday

Charting the Populus “Monday effect” – the day the LAB lead is generally up on the previous Friday

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General elections are on Thursday – so good for CON? For a year now Populus has been issuing two online polls a week – on Monday where the fieldwork has taken place over the weekend and on a Friday when responses were from mid-week. Last week YouGov’s Anthony Wells who runs UKPR crunched the data from the 100 or so Populus online polls that there have been and found an average LAB lead of 3.1% of Friday and a 3.8%…

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There can be no getting round the fact that Tories are still being the most hurt by the UKIP surge

There can be no getting round the fact that Tories are still being the most hurt by the UKIP surge

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And a lot of 2010 non-voters seem to back Farage’s party The above chart is based on the aggregate data from Lord Ashcroft’s latest round of CON-LAB marginals polling which had a total sample of 14,004. The first factor to stand out is that much more of UKIP’s current support in these key battlegrounds continues to come from ex-Tories than from ex-LAB voters. This means, of course, that the blues will benefit most should UKIP support fade. Secondly, given UKIP…

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It looks as though Lord Ashcroft could be polling the slightly less marginal LAB-CON battlegrounds

It looks as though Lord Ashcroft could be polling the slightly less marginal LAB-CON battlegrounds

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Next round of @LordAshcroft marginals polling perhaps? LAB targets #15-30 from UKPR http://t.co/cnko1uzXpI pic.twitter.com/7wlxQCM089 — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) July 27, 2014 Yesterday my wife was telephone polled for what appeared to be a seat specific survey in Bedford where we live. This is LAB target number 24 and was won by the Tories with a 3% majority in 2010. Judging by the format of the questions the interview followed the same pattern as all his other marginals’ polling. To me…

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While Scottish athletes flourish in Glasgow there’s a big polling blow for independence campaigners

While Scottish athletes flourish in Glasgow there’s a big polling blow for independence campaigners

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The pollster that last August had YES ahead now has NO 8% lead In August 2013 there was a sensational poll by the Northumberland-based Panelbase that had YES 1% ahead. Although the survey had been commissioned by the SNP the firm is the regular pollster in Scotland for the Sunday Times which added credence to its findings Since then the firm has been part of the group including Survation and ICM that has tended to have YES in better positions….

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At 4-1 the CON most votes/LAB most seats bet is still the best GE2015 punt

At 4-1 the CON most votes/LAB most seats bet is still the best GE2015 punt

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CON odds on with Ladbrokes http://t.co/5FG1QdHZUh to win most votes, LAB odds to win most seats. Best bet 4/1 dbl pic.twitter.com/80ZexOnrbP — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) July 26, 2014 My current reading is that UKIP returnees will gradually boost CON shares while LAB will retain almost all the 2010 LD switchers which has been the bed-rock of their polling for nearly four years. This means that in terms of national vote shares the outcome will be very tight. The voting patterns…

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Austria, Serbia and George W Bush

Austria, Serbia and George W Bush

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The descent into WWI is a 21st Century story Sepia-toned silent images of black-coated or feather-hatted diplomats lend a reassuring distance to the events that plunged the world into war a hundred years ago this week.  It looks like a world long since vanished and in one sense, it is.  However, like much of that story, it is an illusion; all the more dangerous for the complacency that false reassurance breeds. Far from being a different age, the threats posed…

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