For YouGov trend spotting these are the best figures to watch not the daily polls
The @YouGov monthly average Jan 2013 – June 2014. Figures for July out on Friday. pic.twitter.com/pEBBd634Cu
— Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) July 30, 2014
After the LAB lead dropped from 6% on Monday night to 1% last night there’s been a lot of discussion about the volatility of the firm’s out. In reality, of course, both of this week’s polls have been within the margin of error.
The numbers I most look out for are above – the monthly averages which are very telling. We see the rise of UKIP now fading a touch and due to drop further in July. We also see the decline of Labour from the dizzy heights of te low 40s at the start of last year.
The Tories have stayed remarkably stable while the LDs have slipped.