Good IndyRef poll for YES, LAB moves to 7% YouGov lead whilst UKIP has a dreadful night in latest by-elections
YES edges forward with TNS
#IndyRef YES moves to best position yet in a TNS-BMRB poll pic.twitter.com/9CUJZz3Vby
— Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) July 18, 2014
For whatever reason TNS and YouGov IndyRef polls have generally had the worst numbers for YES while Survation, ICM and PanelBase have had the best. Polling though is all about trends which is why the YES campaign is delighted by the latest from TNS-BMRB. After three other polls from other firms suggested that YES had stalled TNS overnight has them in their best position yet.
Excluding the DKs the split in 45-55 – a gap of just 10%. What’s pleased YES is that the firm is finding that as the DKs decline as we get closer to the referendum two months exactly from today their side seems to be befitting most.
LAB moves to best share with YouGov since March
The final YouGov/Sun poll of the week has LAB with 7% lead
LAB – 39% (+3)
CON – 32% (-1)
LD- 8 (-1)
UKIP – 13% (=)
— Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) July 17, 2014
UKIP pushed to third in both by-elections it was defending
UKIP pushed to 3rd in Cornwall CC by-election. CON win by 1 vote
CON 406
LD 405
UKIP 271
LAB 107
MK – 58
— Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) July 17, 2014
LAB GAIN from UKIP Church Hill on Redditch
LAB 600
CON 339
UKIP 332
LD 40
GRN 32
IND 13
IND 9
— Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) July 18, 2014
CON lose to It’s Our County Ledbury
CON -618
UKIP -166
IOC 835
So two losses for CON tonight
— Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) July 17, 2014
Greens gain seat from CON & SNP has a loss
Oban North & Lorn (Argyll & Bute): IND GAIN from SNP. via @britainelects
— Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) July 17, 2014
Leominster South (Herefordshire): GRN GAIN from CON. via @britainelects
— Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) July 17, 2014
Two comfortable holds for the LDs
LD HOLD Hookstone on Harrogate with increased vote share
LD 886
CON -51
UKIP 206
LAB 71
— Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) July 17, 2014
LD HOLD Colehill East on E Dorset on increased vote share
LD 741
CON 326
UKIP 184
— Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) July 17, 2014