Latest #indyref poll for Times from YouGov has YES 35 (-1) NO 54 (+1) DK/WNV 11 pic.twitter.com/U5c7YKUreP

— Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) July 1, 2014

Time is running out for YES

The big thing about today’s Indy Ref poll by YouGov for the Times is not that there’s been a slight increase in the NO lead but that the referendum election day, September 18th, is getting closer and YES still, apparently, has a mountain to climb.

In a campaign that is increasingly being dominated by the economic implications YouGov finds more thinking that they and Scotland will be worse off if the outcome is YES. Now just 27% believe that the country would be better off if it is a YES and only 17% think that they themselves will.

Professor John Curtice of Strathclyde University is quoted by the paper as saying:-

“..“As ever, it is about the economy, stupid. The Yes campaign has to persuade people that Scotland will be economically better off and people are no more convinced than they were after the publication of the White Paper. Until those numbers turn around, I can’t see them making it, really.

It is going to be very, very difficult. It has looked difficult for quite a while. It needs a gamechanger, and where is that going to come from during the course of the summer?”

A big qualification with all referendum polling is that there is quite a gap between the pollsters with YouGov being one that tends to have lower figures for YES.

I’ve been booked to speak at The Festival of Politics in Edinburgh which is being held at the Scottish Parliament from August 15-17.

Due to be published today is the Lord Ashcroft poll of LAB-LD marginals. I’m tied up in London and will cover this later.

Mike Smithson

2004-2014: The view from OUTSIDE the Westminster bubble

Follow @MSmithsonPB