LAB jump 4% to take 9 point lead in first post Juncker voting intention poll
The comparisons in the chart are from Survation poll taken in the days after the May 22nd Euros.
The fact that this poll coincides with a week that saw the Coulson verdict and the Cameron stand-off in the EU over the presidency doesn’t necessarily mean that these events have impacted on voting plans.
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We have always got to be careful not to confuse correlation with causation. We need more polling before we can start to draw any conclusions.
But Labour will be mighty pleased with these numbers particularly after the ongoing attacks that have been coming from all sides, even Miiband’s own party, about his leadership. If EdM is a drag on his party then that isn’t showing up in the voting intention polls.
To the EU referendum voting question Survation found 47% saying they’d vote to leave and 39% saying stay.
Recent research from Manchester Uni found Survation as the most UKIP friendly pollster with shares for the party averaging 4.4% higher
Electoral Calculus http://t.co/UeqaunHd7w projection on seat split if GE15 voted like in Survation/MoS poll pic.twitter.com/F6Qy1XsPCz
— Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) June 29, 2014
Some points from S Times YouGov carried out before Survation
Update: Lab lead at 4 – Latest YouGov / Sunday Times results 27th June – Con 33%, Lab 37%, LD 8%, UKIP 14%; APP -25 http://t.co/COKLQKxWQz
— YouGov (@YouGov) June 29, 2014
Mike Smithson
2004-2014: The view from OUTSIDE the Westminster bubble
YouGov finds that on EU referendum voting question 39%say they'd vote to remain – 37% to leave. Last week it was 39-39
— Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) June 29, 2014
70% tell, YouGov that they view Cameron's decision to hire Coulson "very" or "fairly" seriously. 21% think it was minor mistake
— Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) June 29, 2014