Why UKIP could be heading for a general election share in the 10-15% range
If that happens it’s seriously bad news for Dave
At a Political Studies Association briefing that I attended before the May 22nd Euros Prof Jane Green of Manchester University announced that British Election Study (BES) poll data sampled in February and March found that 57.6% of those planning to vote UKIP in the Euros also intended to vote for the party at GE2015.
-
Why we should take this poll finding seriously is what happened five years ago when it gave a pretty good pointer to what would happen between the two elections
When the same question was put in the BES study before the 2009 Euros 26.5% of those planning to vote UKIP said they would do the same in the following general election. The actual results from the 2009 Euros and the 2010 general election showed a slip back from 16.2% to 3.2%. When the different turnout levels between the two elections are taken into account that 2009 BES finding stood up pretty well.
So a broad-brush extrapolation from the 27.4% UKIP share from the 2014 Euros points to a UKIP GE2015 share well into double figures – perhaps in the 10-15% range.
The latest BES study also found that of those people intending to vote UKIP at GE2015, 44% voted CON in 2010, 17% voted LD, 11% voted LAB. 9% voted UKIP and 11% didn’t vote. This is in line with other polling that we’ve seen.
So it is hard to conclude other than the Tories will be hit most by a high UKIP vote at GE2015.
Ladbrokes http://t.co/5FG1QdHZUh betting on UKIP vote share at GE2015. 5-10% the current favourite. pic.twitter.com/CwphFvzozu
— Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) June 26, 2014