The night of the crazy EP2014 polling: ComRes has Ukip 11% ahead – ICM puts them third
ComRes online EP2014 poll has Ukip 11% ahead
UKIP 35%+1
LAB 24%=
CON 20% -2
GRN 7% +2
LD 6% -2
— Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) May 17, 2014
ICM online for S Telegraph has Ukip in 3rd place
CON 26%+4
LAB 29%-1
LD 8%=
UKIP 25%-2
Changes on last ICM online Euros poll
— Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) May 17, 2014
The differences between the two polls are massive and it is not easy finding an obvious explanation.
A lot of this comes down to how the two firms handle turnout. ComRes online only includes those saying they are 100% certain to vote even if they didn’t turnout at the last general election.
ICM online weights by how certain to vote people say they are but discounts by 50% the views of those who didn’t vote at the last general election.
One thing’s for sure: One firm is going to look pretty sick a week tomorrow.