If Survation for the MoS is right the LDs set to lose Eastleigh You can get UKIP at 4/1 from Ladbrokes in Eastleigh which seems like a good bet. I’ve long said the Eastleigh was UKIP’s best hope because of its performance in the February 2013 by-election. This poll did not mention the names of candidates – just the parties. We do not know yet whether Diane James will be standing again for the purples. She is a great asset….
The first of tonight’s very interesting crop of polls is out and, as can be seen, UKIP is only 3% behind LAB in the ICM online Euro elections poll. This is a very different picture from the ICM phone poll reported earlier in the week which had UKIP in third place. For whatever reason the purples are doing better when the fieldwork is carried out online. There are several more very newsworthy polls expected in the next few hours. Mike…
Wind continues to enjoy strong support even from CON & UKIP voters It is important to note that this YouGov poll was a private one commissioned by Ecotricity.
Is 35% Labour’s new bedrock support? It’s better to be lucky than to be good, so the saying goes – and in politics, success or failure frequently turns on the timing of events over which those involved have little or no control: their luck, in effect. What they make of that luck is a different matter. To that end, the Lib Dems going into coalition with the Conservatives delivered Ed Miliband a very great slice of luck. Not only did…
Just look at the chart above showing the aggregate CON+LAB vote in all general elections since 1950. GE2010 saw the big two share down to its lowest level. Now with the emergence of UKIP it could edge down even more. What this means is that it is possible for a party to win a general election with little more than a third of the GB vote. At GE2005 Tony Blair’s Labour came home with a 60+ majority on just 36.2%…
Welcome to Axelrod versus Crosby The Guardian front page with news of Labour's appointment of Axelrod to advise on party's GE2015 campaign pic.twitter.com/NLeJSbT9vb — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) April 18, 2014 How much can Ed’s new hire bring that’s relevant to the UK? There’s no doubt that the overnight news on Labour’s Axelrod appointment will cheer the party faithful but I just wonder what Axelrod will be able to bring. Axelrod’s great strength is that he’s good at messaging but he’ll…
Maybe it is because I’m on my way home from Edinburgh after being immersed totally in Scottish politics for two days but I am convinced that the immensity of what will be decided on September 18 is overshadowing everything. The very idea that the Union that has been in place since 1707 might come to an end is what everybody is focusing on to the exclusion of almost everything else in current politics. This means, for starters, that the Euro…
Do punters think that May 22 is not very important? One of the great things about the Betfair exchange is the amount of data that’s available on each of its markets. The chart above is of the total amount of matched bets in £ on the current live UK election markets. As can be seen both the GE 2015 markets, which have been up for nearly four years, attract a lot of interest but not on the scale of the…