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Month: March 2014

LAB moves to highest share of the year in tonight’s YouGov poll

LAB moves to highest share of the year in tonight’s YouGov poll

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LAB lead moves to 9% in tonight's YouGov poll CON 32 LAB 41 LD 8 UKIP 12 — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) March 3, 2014 Tonight's 41% LAB share from YouGov is the highest of the year — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) March 3, 2014 The Scottish polling headlines Ipsos-MORI trend chart showing gap getting larger in #IndyRef polling pic.twitter.com/boOJ2xzTVz — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) March 3, 2014 Scottish #IndyRef YES still struggling to win over women. See chart from Ipsos-MORI pic.twitter.com/G8oCJYx2AA — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB)…

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14 months to go and still no sign of a movement that could stop Ed Miliband becoming PM

14 months to go and still no sign of a movement that could stop Ed Miliband becoming PM

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Good chart from Electoral Calculus http://t.co/feJQJBE8NT showing polling trends since GE2010 pic.twitter.com/dDS86kDbSi — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) March 3, 2014 At the weekend Martin Baxter who’s been running Electoral Calculus for nearly 20 years produced his latest polling average and projections for the general election. The good news for the Tories is that there was slight edge back to them. Instead of a LAB majority of 66 being projected this slipped back to 58. The bad news that they are still…

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Suddenly polling aggregates become all the rage: Introducing the new monthly Populus-FT polling

Suddenly polling aggregates become all the rage: Introducing the new monthly Populus-FT polling

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Where PB goes others follow At the start of the year I introduced the weekly PB YouGov polling average so we could better track the way opinion was moving and isolate key segments for analysis. Well the idea has caught on and today we see the launch of the Populus online monthly polling for the FT based on an overall sample of 14,000. The February Populus/FT numbers are in the interactive chart above as is the latest PB YouGov weekly…

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Why May’s Euro elections could be more challenging for UKIP than 2004 or 2009

Why May’s Euro elections could be more challenging for UKIP than 2004 or 2009

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Much greater scrutiny Expect to see more attacks on UKIP like this in the 11 weeks remaining pic.twitter.com/4AyroUsc1S — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) March 2, 2014 The purples still waiting for their Paul Sykes donation Observer http://t.co/utBXQ83odK has most interesting UKIP #EP2014 campaign story Top donor not handed money over yet pic.twitter.com/l6gFN3AbZk — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) March 2, 2014

Reconsidering the case for George Osborne as next Tory leader

Reconsidering the case for George Osborne as next Tory leader

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The fury of Boris over Osborne – the story that dominates Mail on Sunday front page pic.twitter.com/WTo5vm3731 — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) March 2, 2014 You can get a bet on him at 15/1 Until now I’ve always discounted George Osborne as Cameron’s successor. He generally polls badly and has nothing of the charisma or presence of a Boris or a Dave. Yet the message from the reported flare-up between the Chancellor and the Mayor is that Osborne wants it badly…

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Tonight’s Opinium poll for the Observer sees the LAB share drop to lowest level since 2010

Tonight’s Opinium poll for the Observer sees the LAB share drop to lowest level since 2010

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The LDs get best Opinium figures since 2011 The fortnightly online poll by Opinium for the Observer is out and sees the LAB lead down to 5% and the party with its smallest share with the firm since 2010. The pollster is the only online firm not to have any political weighting which makes an interesting contrast with the other internet operators. It generally has high UKIP scores and low LDs ones. Back in July it had the yellows on…

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Why I’m not convinced that Boris will stand for parliament at GE2015

Why I’m not convinced that Boris will stand for parliament at GE2015

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ITV News on the "Boris being encouraged to stand for Parliament" story http://t.co/TnYeD7NZxT pic.twitter.com/BhSlVM5rUv — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) March 1, 2014 PaddyPower http://t.co/45A6m2316P betting market on which seat Boris will stand in at GE2015 pic.twitter.com/tA0lPRV2J9 — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) March 1, 2014 His term as Mayor ends in May 2016, then there might be a move The timing of the London Mayoral terms was always going to be a problem for Boris assuming that he wants to get back to the…

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