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Month: February 2014

Latest EU referendum polling suggests that the outcome would be far from a foregone conclusion

Latest EU referendum polling suggests that the outcome would be far from a foregone conclusion

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Four CON voters in 10 currently say they’d vote to stay It is a long time since I’ve looked at EU referendum polling and today’s numbers from YouGov rather surprised me. The gap between EXIT and STAY is getting closer and the party splits are not quite as you’d imagine. Of course there is no referendum on the agenda at the moment and I doubt whether Ed Miliband will promise one in the fifteen months that remain until GE2015. If…

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There’s no way that UKIP should be betting favourite to win most votes at EURO2014 based on current polling

There’s no way that UKIP should be betting favourite to win most votes at EURO2014 based on current polling

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It’s even possible that they’ll struggle to retain 2nd place It’s not often that we see such a mismatch between the betting on an election just three and a half months away and what the pollsters are telling us. That’s what’s happening with the May Euro elections where the UKIP winning most votes prices remains strong even though there’s little polling evidence to support it. There’ve only been three published polls so far this year. The Tories have been in…

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The February ICM Guardian poll sees the LDs the big losers with the three others all moving forward

The February ICM Guardian poll sees the LDs the big losers with the three others all moving forward

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UKIP in third place for the Euro elections UKIP in third place behind Tories in new ICM poll for May's Euro elections pic.twitter.com/tSP71pBNiD — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) February 10, 2014 Mike Smithson 2004-2014: The view from OUTSIDE the Westminster bubble Follow @MSmithsonPB

Each day the political potency of the flooding gets bigger

Each day the political potency of the flooding gets bigger

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Paterson/No 10 brief v Smith. Pickles denounces Smith. Paterson complains abt Pickles to No 10, who back Smith. Paterson denies row. Chaos — Tim Shipman (Mail) (@ShippersUnbound) February 10, 2014 No, Owen Paterson hasn't bought a spray can. pic.twitter.com/Zy1BsYnr17 — Paul Waugh (@paulwaugh) February 10, 2014 David Cameron’s response The judgement on the Environment Agency Looking at the party splits CON voters are much more likely to blame the Environment Agency than David Cameron. The ones most supportive of the…

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A 2014 by-election in Lansley’s Cambs South would be a battle to relish – and there’s a reasonable chance it could happen

A 2014 by-election in Lansley’s Cambs South would be a battle to relish – and there’s a reasonable chance it could happen

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Lansley’s now joint 2nd favourite to be next EU Commissioner One of the big decisions that the coalition government has to take in the next few months is who should be the next UK EU Commissioner to the take up office in Brussels in the autumn. Lots of names have been mentioned and last week Ladbrokes opened a betting market. A critical political consideration is that if an MP is appointed then he/she would have to resign their seat and…

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A reminder: The Tories need lead of 7.3 percent before they start winning LAB seats and stop losing to them

A reminder: The Tories need lead of 7.3 percent before they start winning LAB seats and stop losing to them

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The gap needs to close and move sharply the other way Tory hopes will probably be boosted a bit by today’s YouGov for the Sunday Times which sees the party on 35% just 4 points behind Labour with both the LDs and UKIP on 10%. Maybe they can even start to think of a cross-over – something on which there is an active betting market. If that happens it will certainly be a key psychological moment and will give the…

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