Time to start betting on YES

There’s a new IndyRef poll in Scotland on Sunday from ICM – the pollster that got the 2011 AV referendum most right predicting the final result to within a small fraction of a percent.

The figures saw YES up 5% and NO down 5% compared with the last in September.

The initial split in the poll was 54-46 but that closed to 53-47 when those sampled were pressed further for a view.

Very interestingly and worrying for the unionists was that there’s been a move to YES amongst women who have been much more opposed.

Today’s figures represent the largest backing for YES to be recorded in an independently-commissioned survey.

They do suggest that this contest could be a lot closer than was first thought.

In the early hours when news of the poll came through I wagered several hundred pounds on Betfair that YES will win.

This polling, surely, will move the betting.

Other polling headlines

Latest YouGov S Times poll sees LAB lead up from 3 to 7 CON 32-3 LAB 39+2 LD 9+1 UKIP 13+1

— Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) January 26, 2014