With so much difference between the week’s polls the best bet is to rely on ICM
How Betfair punters are seeing GE2015
So many polls – so little clarity
With so many different pictures being recorded in the polls in the past week my normal recourse is to revert back to what I regard as the gold standard – the monthly phone poll from ICM.
The firm was the top British pollster at three of the past four general elections and got the AV referendum right down to one decimlal point.
This came out on Monday night and had CON 34, LAB 38, LD 12, UKIP 8. My sense is that is about the best reflection at the moment of where we will end up in eighteen months time – but, of course, things can change ,
I’d be happier with ICM if it included UKIP in its voting intention question which currently is “The Conservatives, Labour, the Liberal Democrats and other parties would fight a new election in your area. If there were a general election tomorrow which party do you think you would vote for?”
My guess is that the inclusion of UKIP in the ICM question would add one or two points to the party’s share taking perhaps one off the Tories.
Mike Smithson
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