The polling figures that could lay to rest any idea of a CON-UKIP electoral alliance
What happened when voters were asked by YouGov how a CON-UKIP alliance would impact on their GE2015 preferences
On the face of it this seems odd. For in the comparison standard poll CON and UKIP together had combined support of 44%. Yet just 35% told the pollsters that they would vote for a CON-UKIP alliance. What happened to the other 9%?
This was the question that YouGov put after the standard one:-
“Imagine that UKIP and the Conservatives agreed a pact at the next general election where they would not stand against each other, with UKIP backing the Conservative candidate in most constituencies and the Conservatives backing the UKIP candidate in a small number of constituencies. Labour, the Liberal Democrats and other parties would also be standing.Which party would you then vote for?”
56% of the UKIP supporters on the standard question went with the pact – but 44% didn’t. Even more importantly this is what happened when those who said they would be voting CON at GE2015 responded.
Even allowing for the fact that a significant proportion of the don’t knows would probably support the pack it is hard to argue with the overall conclusion – the biggest beneficary of such a pact would be Ed Miliband.
Mike Smithson
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