Ladbrokes make it 4/5 that Paxman will see out his TV duty for the week wth beard It's 2/1 that it'll survive 2013 pic.twitter.com/DMmfgcBWhH — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) August 13, 2013 What do you think of Jeremy Paxman’ beard? Does it…? Make him look younger Make him look older Makes no difference
Last month always looked like an outlier Just a month ago the ICM Guardian phone poll sent shocks throughout the political world when it reported that both the blue and red teams were level pegging on 36% each. It really looked as though the CON revival was bearing fruit and the poll helped fuel the “it’s getting much closer” narrative. Some of the pressure that’s been building up on EdM was party down to this single survey from the pollster…
You can now get evens with Ladbrokes that UKIP will win most votes in Euro2014 http://t.co/5ytVwnI62K CON now 5/1 pic.twitter.com/anXW0n6HoU — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) August 12, 2013 I still think that CON is good bet
It’s now two and a half years since Ed Balls became shadow chancellor and, as the chart above shows, there’s been very little change in public perceptions over who is to blame for the cuts. The charge that it’s “Labour’s fault” continues to resonate. We see it time and time again whenever coalition ministers respond to criticism of their policies for the deficit. Everything is justified because of what they inherited from the last LAB government – an assertion that…
What do you think will be the outcome of the next general election? LAB overall majority LAB most seats but short of majority CON most seats but short of majority CON majority None of the above
But LAB above 40% on voting intentions Note that the changes in the voting chart are with what happened in the same Sunday Times poll at exactly the same time a year ago. Mike Smithson For the latest polling and political betting news Follow @MSmithsonPB
What's significant about Opinium is that the declining LAB lead is mostly down to its share falling 3% rather than CON progress — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) August 10, 2013 Cameron's net approval rating with Opinium is minus 15 – his best figures from the online firm since Jan — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) August 10, 2013
Henry G Manson on the week’s big economic news This week the new Governor of the Bank of England shifted interest rate setting policy by indicating rates shouldn’t increase until unemployment falls to 7%. Acknowledging unemployment as a key indicator of economic health makes sense, but when Carney examines the breakdown  of unemployment figures in the UK he will see a mixed picture as in the chart. What’s clear is that when the 7% rate is eventually reached it will not…