Last month always looked like an outlier

Just a month ago the ICM Guardian phone poll sent shocks throughout the political world when it reported that both the blue and red teams were level pegging on 36% each. It really looked as though the CON revival was bearing fruit and the poll helped fuel the “it’s getting much closer” narrative.

Some of the pressure that’s been building up on EdM was party down to this single survey from the pollster with the best general election record over two decades.

Well tonight we’ve got the August poll and things are a bit back to normal. The Tories are down 4 but it’s not Labour that sees the benefit. It is down one while UKIP is up 3 to 10%.

But it’s not all good news for LAB. This is how the Guardian report starts:-

“A growing proportion of the public believes that David Cameron and George Osborne are more capable of managing the economy than their Labour rivals, according to the latest ICM poll for the Guardian.

The proportion of people prepared to back the Tory team for economic competence has soared to 40% from 28% in June. The findings will make grim post-holiday reading for the Labour leader, Ed Miliband, who along with the shadow chancellor, Ed Balls, has seen a much smaller rise in credibility, with 24% of the public preferring them compared with 19% two months ago…”

ICM is just one of three monthly polls still being carried out by phone.

Mike Smithson

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