The immigration poster that symbolises the Dave’s dilemma. Moves to win back UKIP switchers risk alienating 2010 LDs
The immigration poster at the heart of the CON-LD row. The Tories want it – the LDs are opposed pic.twitter.com/WRIvgDEdWi
— Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) July 30, 2013
How the two key swing groups reacted to the campaign
As we keep on saying two big things have happened to voters since GE2010: The switch to Labour by 2010 LD voters following their party’s coalition deal with the Tories and the shrinkage of the CON vote as a result of the UKIP surge.
Being seen to be tough on immigration has been part of the Tory response – hence the poster van campaign. The YouGov polling above shows how current UKIP voters are responding to the move. But look at the 2010 Lib Dems. They take a very different view.
At GE2010 about one in four of all votes were for the LDs. Since then a large proportion have switched to LAB which adds to the challenge for the Tories.
- Ultimately Lynton Crosby has to find a way stemming the flow to UKIP while trying to minimise the level of LD>LAB switching.
Measures like the van poster might help with the former but make the latter harder.
This one will continue to be great to watch.
Mike Smithson
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