If this is the newly confident Crosby line for Tories it's good: never mind Ukip this is a fight for a Tory or Labour government #bbcsp

— Miranda Green (@greenmiranda) July 7, 2013

The excellent Miranda Green Tweeted the above during BBC1’s Sunday Politics yesterday and my immediate reaction was that she was right and this form of rhetoric would work very effectively at GE2015 squeezing the UKIP vote and moving it to the Tories.

Framing the battle in these simple terms, of course, has been how the blues and reds have played it so often before particularly in the seats that matter – the LAB-CON marginals. Here the blues have to hang on to what they have and, hopefully for them, pick up a few more to get nearer to the elusive overall majority.

But there’s a massive challenge. By far the biggest group of potential switchers are 2010 LDs and the last thing the blues want is for them to vote Labour in the marginals. They want those voters to stick with the yellows.

Presenting the battle in simple LAB versus CON terms might encourage an outcome that could be worse for the blues.

If only Lynton could find a way of talking to UKIP supporters in a way which is not heard by 2010 LDs.

You never know. Crosby is smart when it comes to dog whistles.

I wonder whether the current CON obsession with the seepage of support to UKIP is blinding them to the bigger picture.

Mike Smithson

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