@LordAshcroft Do you need a cover photo for your Boris poll? pic.twitter.com/0UscaExd25

— Nick Boles (@GeneralBoles) June 23, 2013

Is the Mayor the man who polls better than he performs?

In the last year there have been several polls from different pollsters using different methodologies that have sought to test the impact on voting intentions if Boris rather than Dave was CON leader.

The outcomes have generally been the same that the blue team would get a boost with Boris at the helm.

One thing that worries me about Boris surveys is that he’s such a well known figure that he polls better than he performs in real elections.

In last year’s London mayoral race, for instance, every single final survey overstated the Boris position, some by huge margins, and understated Ken with the result being much much closer than anybody was predicting.

So I’m hoping that we might get a better sense of what the voters views of the Mayor are in an 8,000 sized sample Michael Ashcroft poll supplemented by focus groups that’s coming out this week. It is called ““Are you serious? Boris, the Tories and the voters”

Like other Ashcroft polling this looks like being comprehensive and influential.

We don’t know what’s in it but from the trails from Lord Ashcroft overnight and the title we can get a sense. I’m hoping we’ll see some good data that goes deeper beyond the “how would you vote if Boris was CON leader” questioning.

Would a CON party led by Boris really provide the voting boost for the blues?

What’s good about the Ashcroft polling approach is that he likes to do more than scratch the surface and he’s ready to fund huge samples and to share his findings whatever they are saying.

Michael Ashcroft sometimes uses his polling to try to impact on the agenda. My sense is that this one will.

Mike Smithson

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