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Month: March 2013

Is contribution key to making welfare work for Labour?

Is contribution key to making welfare work for Labour?

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Henry G Manson on Friday Taking Yvette Cooper’s immigration speech yesterday at face value and you simply might think the party is tacking to the right on this issue simply to shore up support it lost in the run up to the last election. There’s certainly something in that, but one reference should be seen in a different light and possibly a clue that wider changes to Labour welfare policy are brewing. Yvette Cooper argued  “one practical change within existing European…

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Martin McGuinness’s old seat is held by Sinn Fein

Martin McGuinness’s old seat is held by Sinn Fein

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Mid Ulster elects another SF MP who won’t take his seat at Wesminster. bbc.co.uk/news/uk-northe… twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/st… — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) March 8, 2013 Declared Result Francie Molloy (SF) won the seat after polling 17,462 votes (46.93%) Joint unionist candidate Nigel Lutton was second on 12,781 votes. The SDLP’s Patsy McGlone polled 6,478, with the Alliance Party’s Eric Bullick on 487. Sinn Fein HOLD with a majority of 4,681 Adjusted Result (Unionist allocation) Francis Molloy, SF 17462 46.93% Patsy McGlone, SDLP 6478…

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Exactly 2 years and 2 months to go and an Ashcroft mega-poll finds that a CON majority is the least preferred outcome

Exactly 2 years and 2 months to go and an Ashcroft mega-poll finds that a CON majority is the least preferred outcome

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A new Ashcroft megapoll with 20,022 sample finds that more people want another coalition than a CON maj. LAB maj top. twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/st… — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) March 8, 2013 Precisely 26 months till the GE2015 results start coming in In exactly two years and two months on another Friday morning many of us will have been up all night watching the results of GE2015 come in. Will we be seeing the LAB majority that almost all surveys since Osborne’s March…

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Harry Hayfield’s guide to tonight’s by-elections

Harry Hayfield’s guide to tonight’s by-elections

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Ulster Mid (Sinn Fein Defence) 1992: Democratic Unionist 19,274 (41%) SDLP 14,360 (31%) Sinn Fein 11,340 (24%) Alliance 1,229 (3%) Others 770 (2%) 1997: Sinn Fein 20,294 (40% +16%) Democratic Unionist 18,411 (36% -5%) SDLP 11,205 (22% -9%) Alliance 460 (1% -2%) Others 299 (1% -1%) Sinn Fein GAIN from Democratic Unionist 2001: Sinn Fein 25,202 (51% +11%) Democratic Unionist 15,549 (31% -5%) SDLP 8,376 (17% -5%) Others 509 (1% n/c) Sinn Fein HOLD 2005: Sinn Fein 21,641 (48% -3%) Democratic…

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Victory in these 26 constituencies alone would give Labour a lead on seats at GE2015

Victory in these 26 constituencies alone would give Labour a lead on seats at GE2015

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LAB #GE2015 targets numbers 1 – 25 from ukpollingreport.co.uk/2015guide/labo… twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/st… — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) March 6, 2013 With polls as they are this looks an easy task This post is a follow up to the one we ran yesterday showing the most vulnerable constituencies for the three main parties. This one, from UKPollingReport shows the top 26 target seats for Labour – ones that really are “must wins” for EdM and his team. If this is all they won and…

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EdM’s & Yvette’s immigration rhetoric might be putting at risk some of LAB’s new found supporters

EdM’s & Yvette’s immigration rhetoric might be putting at risk some of LAB’s new found supporters

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A danger for LAB in upping the rhetoric on immigration? Chart showing views on issue broken down by #GE2010 vote. twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/st… — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) March 7, 2013 The current LAB panic over Ukip might be counter-productive A main reason why Labour is consistently showing poll leads over the Tories is that the party has attracted so many Lib Dem 2010 voters. If EdM & co are to win back power in 2015 then this segment of the electorate has…

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Harry Hayfield puts the Ukip surge in an historical context

Harry Hayfield puts the Ukip surge in an historical context

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If you’re one of those who really miss by-elections campaigns a reminder from last week. twitter.com/LoonyPartyNews… — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) March 6, 2013 Before Mr Farage gets too cock a hoop…. The last few parliamentary by-elections have been all about UKIP. They may not have won a seat, but they have certainly made the headlines. An increase of 14% in Corby, 16% in Rotherham, 24% in Eastleigh, polling over 10% of the vote in six of the last fifteen by-elections,…

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