CON up 2, Ukip down 2 in first post-budget daily poll but otherwise very little change. twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/st…

— Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) March 22, 2013

We’ve just got the first post-budget voting figures from YouGov which are all within the margin of error. Only change on yesterday is CON up 2 with Ukip down 2.

If the blue hope was that the budget would be a game-changer there is no sign of it yet.

No doubt there’ll be lots of new data to come on the specific measures and overall strategy.

These things can take time to settle down and it’s the post-Easter polling that will be the most interesting.

Update on last night’s local by-elections

Results compiled by Harry Hayfield

Adyesfield West: Lib Dem 363 (33% +18%), Lab 278 (25% -18%), Con 229 (21% -22%), UKIP 193 (17%), Others 51 (5%) Lib Dem GAIN from Labour on a swing of 18% from Lab to Lib Dem

Gooshays: UKIP 831 (39% +33%), Lab 569 (27% -7%), Con 280 (13% -19%), Rates 227 (11% +1%), BNP 202 (9% -9%), Ind 24 (1%) UKIP GAIN from Conservative on a swing of 20% from Lab to UKIP

Islington Junction: Lab 1,343 (62% +23%), Green 381 (18% +6%), Lib Dem 276 (13% -27%), Con 120 (6% -4%), BNP 31 (1%), Others 18 (1%) Lab GAIN from Liberal Democrat on a swing of 9% from Green to Lab

Islington St. George’s: Lab 1,698 (71% +37%), Lib Dem 371 (16% -27%), Green 206 (9% -5%), Con 87 (4% -6%), BNP 20 (1%) Lab HOLD on a swing of 32% from Lib Dem to Lab

Lodbourne: Lib Dem 187 (48% unchanged), Con 134 (34% -18%), Lab 69 (18%) Lib Dem GAIN from Con on a swing of 9% from Con to Lib Dem

The Stours: Result still outstanding

Average Change: Con -14% Lab +11% Lib Dem -7% Ind unchanged UKIP +10% Green unchanged BNP -1% Others +1%
Swings: Con to Lab 12.5%, Con to Lib Dem 3.5%, Lib Dem to Lab 9%

Mike Smithson

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