CON 1500 majority that’ll go LAB 7000: the private poll that’s adding to the blue panic.m.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/… twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/st…

— Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) March 11, 2013

Was the funder Bedford’s MP, Richard Fuller – majority 1353?

Last autumn, for the very first time in my life, I took part in telephone political poll. After having written about polling for years this was a unique experience and I’ve been waiting for the survey I took part in to appear.

As I recall the interviewer, from Populus, started by saying that they were calling a number of people in the Bedford area which made me think that this was a Lord Ashcroft marginals survey. Nothing has come out that seemed to match.

After I’d responded “Lib Dem” to the voting intention question I was pressed about the possibility of changing my mind, and whether and which way I might vote tactically. The questioning was quite sophisticated and would have given allowed a fair projection of where some of the 20% of LD votes in the seat at GE2010 would move.

The description from Gaby Hinsliff’s Guardian column today matches the seat. CON majority from 2010 of 1,353 and an MP who probably has the resources to fund what would have been a very expensive phone survey.

The reported poll outcome fits very closely with my own sense of what is going to happen in the constituency and which is impacting strongly on my current view of the GE2015 outcome.

Bedford was in the first batch seats lost by Labour in 2010 where the PPC was selected early. The party went with the ex-MP who’ll be seekng to make a return.

Mike Smithson

For the latest polling and political betting news

Follow @MSmithsonPB