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Month: February 2013

Ex-LAB MP Nick Palmer on the #Eastleigh tactical voting dilemma

Ex-LAB MP Nick Palmer on the #Eastleigh tactical voting dilemma

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The Ashcroft #Eastleigh polling data that might be worrying to the Tories – the numbers supporting tactical voting twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/st… — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) February 9, 2013 How will Labour supporters vote in the by-election? The first poll makes it pretty obvious that the Eastleigh result will hinge on whether the LibDems can squeeze the Labour vote or not. So how will a typical Labour voter think? Assume you think the Government is rubbish, you really dislike the Tories and think…

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Is Clegg safe till 2015 now?

Is Clegg safe till 2015 now?

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David Herdson looks at the Lib Dem leadership  Chris Huhne’s conviction and resignation from parliament has had many consequences, not the least of which is a very interesting by-election.  If the Lib Dems lose, it’s likely to put serious pressure on the coalition; if the Tories lose, it raises questions as to whether they can gain enough Lib Dem seats at the next election to form a government, even if they can claw back Labour’s lead; if both lose, it…

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#Eastleigh: The betting moves a notch towards the LDs after the Ashcroft poll

#Eastleigh: The betting moves a notch towards the LDs after the Ashcroft poll

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#Eastleigh: Bet365, PaddyPower, Coral & Hills make the LDs odds on FAV. Ladbrokes & Stan James have both CON&LD at evens. Betfair LD the FAV — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) February 8, 2013 @opusdeath I plan to make an #Easteigh call once the LD have selected their candidate & maybe we have more polling — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) February 8, 2013 It’s been a day of consolidation on the by-election betting markets following the publication of Michael Ashcroft’s telephone poll. Although…

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The Bedroom Tax will kill Coalition claims of fairness

The Bedroom Tax will kill Coalition claims of fairness

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The Henry G. Manson Friday slot There are some that have likened the ‘bedroom tax’ to the ‘Poll Tax’. It’s not. The bedroom tax won’t apply to the vast majority of people, so its political purchase is limited in that respect. However it is hitting around 600,000 of some of the most vulnerable in society that is significant. The unfairness of the implications of this particular policy will ring out across the country come April. The fact that this will…

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The Ashcroft poll shows that the Lib Dems can just hold Eastleigh but only if they can get their reluctant supporters to vote

The Ashcroft poll shows that the Lib Dems can just hold Eastleigh but only if they can get their reluctant supporters to vote

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Revised pie chart showing Ashcroft Eastleigh poll BEFORE application of certainty to vote filter twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/st… — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) February 8, 2013 This will all come down to the GOTV operations We’ve now got the full data from the Lord Ashcroft Eastleigh by-election poll and the detail points to a fascinating and absorbing battle over the next 20 days. The headline figures, as reported last night, had CON 34%: LAB 19%: LD 31%: Ukip 13%. The reason that the Tories…

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The PB Thursday night local elections special

The PB Thursday night local elections special

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Harry Hayfield previews the contests   Village on Stockton on Tees (Ind Defence) Last Local Elections (2011): Lab 27, Ind 13, Con 12, Lib Dem 4. No Overall Control (Labour short by 2) Result at last election (2011): Ind 2,109 (54%) Lab 1,251 (32%) Con 438 (11%) Lib Dem 116 (3%) With a name such as Village, it should come as no surprise to hear that this ward lies in Stockton South constituency (one of the few in the north…

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CON 3 percent ahead in first #Eastleigh poll

CON 3 percent ahead in first #Eastleigh poll

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Pie chart showing Lord Ashcroft’s first #Eastleigh poll with changes on #GE2010. twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/st… — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) February 7, 2013 The polling was conducted on 4 and 5 February by the former Conservative deputy chairman Lord Michael Ashcroft.

We should get the first indications of the way #Eastleigh is going at midnight

We should get the first indications of the way #Eastleigh is going at midnight

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First Eastleigh poll coming at midnight, courtesy of Lord Ashcroft. Will ruffle a few feathers. — James Chapman (Mail) (@jameschappers) February 7, 2013 What does Chapman’s “ruffle a few feathers” mean? The big news for Eastleigh punters is that we are going to see the first by-election poll at midnight. It’s been commissioned by Lord Ashcroft which probably means that it was carried out by Populus. Almost certainly it will be a phone poll. The only indication of what it…

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