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Month: February 2013

As a general rule we over-estimate the impact of media stories on voting intentions

As a general rule we over-estimate the impact of media stories on voting intentions

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If #Eastleigh goes the way of the Ashcroft poll we’ll have to revise our view of the power of the press twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/st… — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) February 26, 2013 The influence is on the decline On the face of the Lib Dem should be taking a real beating in the polls at the moment. Since the Rennard story broke on Thursday evening there has been increasing coverage and the party’s response has been less than optimal. But what’s happened in…

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On Friday the good citizens of Eastleigh will get their lives back

On Friday the good citizens of Eastleigh will get their lives back

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Only 2 days to go for the campaign weary people of #Eastleigh. twitter.com/mrjohnofarrell… — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) February 26, 2013 The #Eastleigh campaign – the most intensive ever? Ashcroft poll finds 90% of all voters have been contacted by the Tories & 92% by the LDs — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) February 26, 2013

New Ashcroft Eastleigh poll has the LDs 5 percent ahead

New Ashcroft Eastleigh poll has the LDs 5 percent ahead

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All fieldwork was AFTER Rennardgate story came out Mark Pack reporting that LDs have 5% lead in post-Rennard poll, markpack.org.uk/39506/new-east… twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/st… — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) February 25, 2013 We’ll probably have to wait till tomorrow before getting the poll detail. The figures are almost exactly the same as the Times Populus poll published on Friday night. It’s understood that Populus carry out Lord Ashcroft’s surveys. It would appear that the weekend of terrible coverage for the Lib Dems hasn’t had…

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Italian exit polls point to victory for Bersani

Italian exit polls point to victory for Bersani

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Bersani could be heading for victory in Italy. twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/st… — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) February 25, 2013 Latest Italian polls. Rai (Piepoli pollster)SenateBersani 36-38%Berlusconi 30-32%HouseBersani 35-37%Berlusconi 29-31% — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) February 25, 2013 To follow the action check out:- http://elezioni.interno.it/index.html – official results, Senato = Senate, Camera = Chamber of Deputies http://www.rai.it/ – live TV streaming available under “Notizie”

There’ll be no new Eastleigh polls before the election…

There’ll be no new Eastleigh polls before the election…

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Meanwhile news if coming out about postal voting Eastleigh Council say 14,276 postal votes issued, and they’ve had about 8,500 back so far, so about 11 per cent of voters already voted — Michael Crick (@MichaelLCrick) February 25, 2013 So it’s Survation’s 4% CON lead vs the Populus 5% LD one I’ve done a check round the pollsters with the capabilities to do constituency surveys and the message I’ve got is that there probably won’t be a new survey ahead…

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Rennardgate puts pressure on the Tories to ensure they win Eastleigh

Rennardgate puts pressure on the Tories to ensure they win Eastleigh

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How can they fail with all this happening to the LDs? Terrible front pages for Nick Clegg this morning – 3 days before crucial #Eastleigh by-election twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/st… — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) February 25, 2013 The appalling coverage for the LDs raises the #Eastleigh stakes for the Tories. They surely HAVE to win now. twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/st… — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) February 25, 2013 In the #Eastleigh betting LDs stable overnight but Ukip tightening. Table based on Betfair last trades. twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/st… — Mike…

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Is Clegg going to be able to survive?

Is Clegg going to be able to survive?

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Ladbrokes make it a 6/4 chance that Clegg won’t be Lib Dem leader at the general election twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/st… — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) February 24, 2013 Inititial reaction to Clegg’s statement on #Eastleigh betting is for LD price to weaken & Tories to tighten twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/st… — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) February 24, 2013 13% of LAB voters in the Populus #Eastleigh poll said they didn’t even know who Nick Clegg was. When asked they said “never heard of him” — Mike Smithson…

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