YouGov headlines: Stay in leads on referendum voting; Ukip drop to 4th in Euro 2014 voting; Ukip 7% Westminster share lowest level for months
Latest YouGov Westminster voting intentions – CON 33%, LAB 42%, LD 11%, UKIP 7%.
— Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) January 20, 2013
YouGov’s sensational 2014 Euro elections polling with comparisons on last week.See table twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/st…
— Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) January 20, 2013
YouGov: staying in now has a 6% lead when people are asked how they would vote in an EU referendum.Last week leave was 7% ahead
— Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) January 20, 2013
If YouGov is right there’ve been big changes
Today’s YouGov poll for the Sunday Times has some dramatic findings which go against recent trends and the media narrative.
For if the pollster has got this right Ukip is now in decline and stayng in has become the preferred option in an EU referendum.
- Whenever changes like this happen the best approach is to be cautious. Wait for other polling to see if the trends are supported. For there is always the possiblity that a sample might be distorted.
The Euro elections voting intentions, for instance, now has Ukip 5% down on what it achieved in June 2009 when it squeezed LAB out of second place.
I believe we should see the January ICM telephone poll tomorrow evening.
Mike Smithson
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