LAB set to double 2009 vote share according to first 2014 Euro election poll. Ukip up but in 3rd place behind CON twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/st…

— Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) January 7, 2013

Survation has UKIP up on 2009 but down to 3rd place

My chart shows the findings of the weekend’s Survation poll on the 2014 Euro elections and compares the vote shares from June 2009 when the elections were last held.

Then was very much a low point for the Brown government and the big issue was whether the red team would finish behind UKIP. They did with 15.7% of the GB vote which was the lowest ever recorded by a party of government in a UK-wide election. Farage’s UKIP came in second place on 16.5% which was just 0.3 points up on five years earlier.

With the dramatic Ukip polling surge that we’ve seen since the March 2012 budget there’s been a lot of talk, and even betting on, whether Farage’s party could finish up in first place. This latest poll suggests that they’ve got a long way to go.

At 21.5% Ukip is well up on 2009 but the survey suggests that it hasn’t yet met the expectations of many pundits. The poll suggests that the Tories are doing reasonably well holding on to 24.2% compared with their 27.7% four years ago.

The Lib Dems, who’ve seen a dramatic decline in their Westminster voting shares since 2010 were bracing themselves for a possible fifth place behind the Greens. Survation shows that they are down 3 from the 13.7% of 2009 but still well ahead of the Greens.

The biggest losers appear to be BNP. Interestingly the BNP-UKIP aggregate recorded by Survation is almost the same as the two parties achieved in 2009.

Mike Smithson

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