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Month: December 2012

The working families tax credit cap: Has Osborne “strapped himself to a Gordon Brown booby trap”?

The working families tax credit cap: Has Osborne “strapped himself to a Gordon Brown booby trap”?

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LAB says that numbers hit working families benefits cap exceeds CON majorities in key marginals guardian.co.uk/politics/2012/… twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/st… — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) December 12, 2012 @msmithsonpb Brown put working people Tories need for a majority on Tax credits. Osbornes strapped himself to another Brown booby trap. — David Morton (@DavidMorton359) December 12, 2012 In an interesting move overnight Labour has published HMRC data showing the precise number of working families in key CON-held marginals who will be affected by the Chancellor’s…

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Adam Boulton fires the first salvo in the 2015 leadership debates battle

Adam Boulton fires the first salvo in the 2015 leadership debates battle

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Cameron doesn’t do extended interviews (except Marr), he doesn’t do monthly news conferences, now blowing cold on debates – accountable? — Adam Boulton (@adamboultonSKY) December 11, 2012 Cameron’s reluctance might not be good politics The Tweet this morning from Sky TV’s political editor, Adam Boulton, should worry Downing Street. For Boulton has broadened Dave’s desire not to repeat the 2010 TV debates experience into a general attack on the PM’s accountability as PM in a manner that could run and…

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Today’s share from YouGov for UKIP is down 8 percent – the lowest the firm has found since the by-elections

Today’s share from YouGov for UKIP is down 8 percent – the lowest the firm has found since the by-elections

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YouGov’s share for UKIP today is 8% – precisely half what TNS BMRB reported yesterday.CON 33%, LAB 42%, LD 10%, UKIP 8% — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) December 11, 2012 Putting the TNS BMRB UKIP 16 percent share into context Mike Smithson For the latest polling and political betting news Follow @MSmithsonPB

UKIP just 10 points behind the Tories in new TNS-BMRB poll

UKIP just 10 points behind the Tories in new TNS-BMRB poll

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UKIP get to within 10 points of the Tories in new TNS-BMRB poll. see detail twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/st… — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) December 10, 2012 Farage’s party now double the LD share It’s hard to know what to make of this afternoon’s poll from TNS-BMRB which has the most sensational polling figures of any survey since the general election. UKIP appear to be the main beneficiary from Tory’ woes as they pick up another 4% to rise to 16%. UKIP have now…

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The problem with the Tory gay marriage row is not the issue itself but the party appearing split

The problem with the Tory gay marriage row is not the issue itself but the party appearing split

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Powerful I front page lead on Tory splits over gay marriage independent.co.uk/news/uk/politi… twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/st… — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) December 10, 2012 The polls seem to back Dave As the I and the Indy are reporting this morning there’s a schism growing within the Tory party over gay marriage – on which an announcement is expected this week. On the one hand a powerful grouping including Boris and Gove are getting behind the proposal while a traidtionalist faction is getting ready to…

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How lower turnout in LAB seats is a big driver of the “electoral bias” against the Tories

How lower turnout in LAB seats is a big driver of the “electoral bias” against the Tories

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How lower turnout in LAB seats is a big driver of the “electoral bias” against the Tories. www7.politicalbetting.com/?p=54684. twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/st… — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) December 9, 2012 The above is based on data prepared by Professor John Curtice of Strathclyde University and others after the 2010 general election and seeks to show one of the big drivers of “electoral bias”. The first set of data shows the average electorate in LAB and CON constituencies last time. There is a difference –…

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Labour, like the Republican party, will struggle to win if it is still getting the blame

Labour, like the Republican party, will struggle to win if it is still getting the blame

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Look what happened in the US last month The #WH2012 exit poll data that should worry LAB. 4 years on Bush was getting the blame for the economy not Obama twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/st… — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) December 9, 2012 The latest “blame” polling in the UK The latest polling shows LAB still struggling to shake off being blamed for the current spending cuts. See chart. twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/st… — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) December 9, 2012 Throughout Romney’s abortive bid to become President his…

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