UKIP averaging just under 17pc with the 60+ group – electors most likely to vote and least likely to change mind
UKIP’S shares in last 5 YouGov polls amongst the 60+ age have been 17, 17, 13, 19 and 18. 60+ most likely to vote &least likely to change.
— Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) December 6, 2012
The 60+ age group in today’s YouGov had CON 35%: LAB 35%: LD 9%: UKIP 17%
— Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) December 6, 2012
UKIP still in double figures in latest YouGov: CON 32%, LAB 44%, LD 9%, UKIP 10%
— Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) December 6, 2012
Today’s 12% LAB lead with YouGov is the sixth time in past 7 polls that the gap has been 12 or more.It looks like a trend
— Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) December 6, 2012
Over the paat week UKIP has been picking up an average of just under 17% amongst those polled by UKIP in the 60+ age group in the YouGov daily poll.
Normally you would be wary of reading too much into sub-samples – but this figure is based on well over 2,000 responses in five polls.
The same period has seen Labour move to overall leads of 12% or more in five out of the last six surveys from the firm.
The problem for the Tories is that compared with everybody else the over 60s are much more likely to be on the electoral reigster; more likely to vote, and in the past more likely to favour the Tories than other age segments.
THe big question is whether those in the CON-LAB and CON-LD battle-grounds would stick with their choice in a general election. Other polling data suggests that they are less likely to change their minds.
Mike Smithson
For the latest polling and political betting news