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Month: November 2012

Ladbrokes make it odds-on that Nadine won’t be an MP after the next general election

Ladbrokes make it odds-on that Nadine won’t be an MP after the next general election

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Ladbrokes make it evens that Nadine will be re-elected as an MP (for any party) and 8/11 she isn’t bit.ly/c5gpH6 twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/st… — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) November 20, 2012 Is this a realistic assessment of her chances? If the voting in “I’m a celebrity get me out of here” goes against her then the Central Bedfordshire Tory MP, Nadine Dorries, will be heading back to the UK quite soon. No doubt her first appointment will be a meeting (without coffee as…

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Hills resumes betting on an EU referendum (7-4) and a UK exit (7/1) before 2020. Value bets?

Hills resumes betting on an EU referendum (7-4) and a UK exit (7/1) before 2020. Value bets?

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Hills have re-opened EU betting market. Now 7/4 on a referendum & 7/1 on a UK exit Now bit.ly/u6wr8r twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/st… — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) November 20, 2012 There’s been a big political betting rush overnight following the opening by William Hill on Britain’s membership of the EU. Initially one bet had 2/1 that there’d be a referendum before 2020 and the other 10/1 that there’s be a UK exit in the same period. My Tweet sparked off a lot of…

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ICM – the pollster PBers voted Britain’s most accurate – has UKIP moving to a record 7 percent

ICM – the pollster PBers voted Britain’s most accurate – has UKIP moving to a record 7 percent

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The party breakdown & changes in this month’s ICM phone poll – which has UKIP at a record high for the firm. twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/st… — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) November 19, 2012 LAB is leading by 47% to 30% amongst women in tonight’s ICM poll. — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) November 19, 2012 The CON share of 32% from ICM is the second lowest from the firm since David Cameron became leader in Dec 2005 — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) November 19, 2012 Cameron’s…

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How the punters’ views of Ed Miliband’s chances of becoming PM are changing

How the punters’ views of Ed Miliband’s chances of becoming PM are changing

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Since September at Ladbrokes Ed Miliband has moved from a 45% chance of becoming PM before 2020 to a 60% one twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/st… — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) November 19, 2012 But is the 4/6 price now too tight? From a betting standpoint EdM has had a good 12 months. Three big things have happened. The Osborne budget in March was a turning point and became the peg for the media narrative on the competence of Dave/George. Since then LAB has enjoyed…

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Henry G Manson says LAB should consider the 2006 Dave the Chameleon approach to undermine Cameron

Henry G Manson says LAB should consider the 2006 Dave the Chameleon approach to undermine Cameron

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Is it more relevant and pointed now than it was then? Six and a half years ago the Labour Party launched a party political broadcast aiming to highlight how David Cameron would say whatever his audience or ‘target demographic’ wanted to hear. At the time I was struck by how many people were prepared to give Cameron the benefit of the doubt. It didn’t have traction. I think this is less the case now. The respray he gave his party…

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Can the king of “dog-whistle” politics deliver Dave an overall majority in 2015

Can the king of “dog-whistle” politics deliver Dave an overall majority in 2015

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Will new Tory campaign boss,Lynton Crosby,go back to his 2005 ads for Michael Howard like this one? twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/st… — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) November 18, 2012 Or are there dangers in Lynton’s Crosby’s approach? The big political news of the day has been the appointment by David Cameron of the Australian campaign guru, Lynton Crosby, to run the Tory 2015 general election campaign. Crosby is no stranger to these shores. Back in 2005 he was hired by Dave’s predecessor, Michael Howard,…

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The ComRes polling that totally undermines the notion that UKIP voters are simply “Tories on holiday”

The ComRes polling that totally undermines the notion that UKIP voters are simply “Tories on holiday”

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If ComRes is right the Tories are seriously over-estimating the potential for UKIP switching bit.ly/RKTZ5L twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/st… — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) November 18, 2012 Just 18% of current UKIP voters say they’d “consider” the Tories From the three online polls that have come out overnight there is one sets of findings that stand out – the responses to the ComRes “potential to switch” question. Poll participants were asked after giving their party choice what other parties they could see themselves “seriously…

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New ComRes online poll for S. Mirror and Indy on Sunday has LAB lead at it highest level for 7 years

New ComRes online poll for S. Mirror and Indy on Sunday has LAB lead at it highest level for 7 years

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LAB moves to its biggest ever lead in a ComRes poll. See table. www7.politicalbetting.com/?p=53790 twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/st… — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) November 17, 2012 And there’s goodish news for UKIP & the LDs ComRes operate two entirely separate polls. The monthly phone surveys for the Independent and a much less expensive online poll for the Sunday Mirror and the Independent. Tonight we have the latter with the shares above. The voting intention shares are showing the trend seen in the week’s only…

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