Labour makes it six out of six in the November by-elections
As predicted by the betting markets three emphatic wins for LAB in the three by-elections twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/st…
— Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) November 30, 2012
After the overnight by-elections Ladbrokes make it 2/1 shot that UKIP wins a seat at next general election. bit.ly/c5gpH6
— Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) November 30, 2012
Ladbrokes is offering 4/1 that UKIP outvotes the Lib Dems at the next general election. bit.ly/c5gpH6
— Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) November 30, 2012
An okay night for UKIP but still miles from winning a seat
The three by-elections went exactly the way the betting markets had predicted. The fact that punters were reluctant to risk their cash on UKIP in Rotherham and RESPECT in Croydon North was borne out by the actual results.
UKIP secured second place in Rotherham with a creditable 21.8% of the vote but they were miles behind Labour’s 46.25%.
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Farage’s party has yet to show that it is capable of winning Westminster seats even when it is doing well in the national polls and has politically explosive stories like the Rotherham fostering row to exploit.
It is extraordinarily challenging taking on the effective Labour ground machine.
The Tories were fifth in Rotherham while the LDs were reduced to seventh place and a lost deposit.
The RESPECT challenge in Croydon North turned out to be the damp squib of the night. The party’s Lee Jasper finished in sixth place with 707 votes which meant a lost deposit.Labour won easily with 64.7% of the vote ahead of the Tories on 16.8%
In Middlesbrough the LAB vote went up 14.6% to 60.5% with UKIP a long way behind in second place on 11.8%. The LDs came third not far behind but had a miserable night overall.
The glut of by-elections this month has been amazing and Labour can feel pretty pleased that it has chalked up easy victories in all of them.
Mike Smithson
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