The ComRes polling that totally undermines the notion that UKIP voters are simply “Tories on holiday”
If ComRes is right the Tories are seriously over-estimating the potential for UKIP switching bit.ly/RKTZ5L twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/st…
— Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) November 18, 2012
Just 18% of current UKIP voters say they’d “consider” the Tories
From the three online polls that have come out overnight there is one sets of findings that stand out – the responses to the ComRes “potential to switch” question.
Poll participants were asked after giving their party choice what other parties they could see themselves “seriously considering”. Check out page 23 of this PDF for the full detail.
What stands is the small proportion, just 18%, of current UKIP backers who say they could “seriously consider” the Tories. There were 173 UKIP voters in the poll so the sample size of the sub-set is reasonable though clearly there is a highish margin of error.
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But however you play about with the figures it is hard to conclude other than that Tory hopes of “winning” large slabs of UKIP support in a general election are nothing like as high as is generally perceived
In fact the group that offers most potential for the blues are Lib Dem supporters – 31% of who told the pollster that they’d seriously consider voting Tory.
Mike Smithson
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