Peter Kellner says “I still think a Conservative victory is the likeliest outcome in 2015…” bit.ly/JuGAv2

— Mike Smithson (@MikeSmithsonOGH) May 14, 2012

Interesting article on the latest ratings changes for Ed Miliband and David Cameron on the YouGov site by Peter Kellner. Looking back he notes:-

“…In the months leading up to the 1970 election, Wilson’s ratings improved. By election day he was much better liked than Heath. Yet Heath won: Wilson’s mid-term travails had been too profound, and his late surge too fragile, to give him the victory he expected.

History seldom repeats itself in a tidy manner; so I am not yet predicting that David Cameron will end up like a Tory Harold Wilson, or Ed Miliband a Labour Edward Heath. I still think a Conservative victory is the likeliest outcome in 2015.

However, if the post-Budget shifts in sentiment do persist through the summer, that judgement may change..”

Clearly there are three years to go and anything can happen. Cameron does need to recover from his April and now May slump or else it will have a look of permanence about it.

@MikeSmithsonOGH