As I’ve explained before I’m not betting on outcomes in the GOP race but where I think the short-term movements in the betting will be.

The idea is to try to back at a long price and then lay as sentiment changes and the price moves in.

There are elections in three states tomorrow and if the polling is correct then Santorum could pick up two of them. If that happened he will, surely, edge the fading Gingrich campaign from the number 2 slot and his price should move in.

In Colorado the pollster, PPP, has reported that Romney is on 40%, Rick Santorum is on 26%, while Newt Gingrich is at 18% with Ron Paul at 12%. In December Newt was 19% ahead.

For tomorrow’s other caucus in Minnesota PPP have reported that Rick Santorum at 29% was just ahead of Romney on 27% with 22% for Gingrich, and 19% for Paul. Only two weeks ago Newt had been in the lead there on 34%.

In the final battle, the Missouri primary, Gingrich is not on the ballot and Santorum is leading Romney by 11%.

Mike Smithson @MikeSmithsonOGH