Have the Tories shot UKIP’s fox?

I’m told that there’ll be another Feltham by-election poll in the Sunday papers and we’ll see both pre-today and those responses that came after the dramatic overnight news from Brussels.

One feature that will be interesting is the UKIP share. Will it be down at the 3% recorded in the massive Michael Ashcroft phone poll reported yesterday or might we see something higher.

For Cameron’s robust approach in the negotiations will surely have ramifications back home and none more than for the party whose USP is that the UK should withdraw from the EU.

Instead it looks as though the country will have a looser arrangement not being part of the “inner-circle”. We don’t know the full consequences of that yet but we are entering a new period. James Forsyth at the Spectator is correct – this is a defining moment.

Over the past few months as the Euro-zone crisis has developed Farage has barely been heard from. Full withdrawal and a referendum are still there for UKIP to argue over but the world has changed.

Mike Smithson @MikeSmithsonOGH