Have we been here before with Rick, Michelle & Herman?

The race for the Republican party nomination for the White House has a familiar pattern to it. Mitt Romney continues to poll in the 20s and every few weeks or so one of the other hopefuls suddenly has a surge only to be thwarted in some form later.

We are seeing that with restaurant chain boss, Herman Cain, at the moment. He’s seen his ratings drop after the sexual harassment allegations and some less than sure-footed campaign appearances. Until about ten days ago Cain was the leading ABM (Anybody but MITT) candidate – a position that he’s about to give up to the veteran ex-house speaker, Newt Gingrich.

You don’t need to look at the polls to see what is happening – for as soon as one of them occupies the ABM slot then the mud starts to be thrown and Newt is the current target.

In his case mysterious leaflets about his three marriages are being pushed under hotel doors in Iowa and he’s facing flack about some of the consultancy contracts that he’s had.

What’s on Newt’s side is that time is fast running out. We are less than seven weeks from the Iowa caucuses and eight weeks from New Hampshire.

Gingrich is a tough and shrewd politician. I wouldn’t write him off.

@MikeSmithsonPB