General election outcome	Betfair
CON MAJ	1.46/1
NO OVERALL MAJ	1.78/1
LAB MAJ	2.65/1

Are there too many obstacles to success?

This is first post on the betting for next time – which almost certainly will be be on May 7th 2015 – three and a half years off.

The only general election market I’ve been tempted by is on which year where I’ve built up a reasonable position at odds averaging just short of evens on 2015. I regard these wagers as my Betfair Savings Certificates.

But what about the outcome. Are punters right to make a Tory majority the favoured outcome?

Given that the latest round of polls has Labour with leads ranging from 4 – 8% and, even with the boundary changes, the threshold for Miliband’s party is likely to be lower than for the Tories then the current pricing doesn’t seem right.

There’s also the potential for Europe to blow up again at any time which could be damaging to the blue team. Michael Ashcroft has this right in his ConHome article this morning.

I find it hard to see beyond another hung parliament with just the possibility of a Labour overall victory.

This is not a market I’ve entered – it requires you to lock money for quite a long time – but if I was to bet it would be that there won’t be a Tory majority.

@MikeSmithsonPB