Will October 2013 be the critical moment?

At a briefing suggestion on the boundary review this lunch-time a leading Tory insider suggested that the most critical issue for the future of the coalition will be the vote on the new boundaries that is expected to take place in October 2013

(Note that the vote due then is not on the legislation which has already been agreed and enacted. Rather it on the the detailed proposals to redraw the electoral map. This has to be agreed in a commons vote.)

With Labour expected to vote en bloc against, a significant number of Tories likely to lose out and many LDs expected to affected the chances of a very tight vote must be very high.

The plan is for the commons to be reduced from 650 to 600.

The big winners if the plans go through will be Tories.

The first proposals will be published on September 13.

@MikeSmithsonPB