Could the top pollster from 2007 be right again?

There’s a new ICM poll of Scotland that is showing quite a different picture of opinion in the country compared with other recent surveys from other firms. The figures are as follows:-

The constituency voting intentions show: Lab 39, SNP 35, Con 12, LD 10, Oth 4

The regional voting intention shows: Lab 37, SNP 34, Con 13, LD 9, Grn 4, Oth 7

The actual constituency breakdown from 2007 was LAB 32.2: SNP 32.9: CON 16.6 LD 16.2. The regional vote was LAB 29.2: SNP 31: CON 13.9: LD 11.3: GRN 4

So Labour and the SNP are doing better than four years ago while the Westminster coalitions partners are doing worse.

At the 2007 Scottish elections ICM came out as top pollster.

Mike Smithson