Is this women going to be an MP on Friday?

I’ve just laid Labour at 1.05 on Betfair – that’s a return of 20 times the money I’ve got at risk if they fail to do it. I think it’s a value bet.

So what about you. What do you think will be the outcome on Thursday? Please use the quickies poll below and used the thread to post your predictions for posterity. PB, for those that didn’t know, is part of the National Web Archive so future generations will be able to peruse our ramblings.

What will be the outcome of the Oldham E and Saddleworth by-election?
	A win for the Tories
	A majority of 501 or more for Elwyn Watkins
	A majority of 500 or fewer for Watkins to a majority of up to 499 for Labour
	A Labour majority of 500 – 1499 votes
	A Labour majority of 1500 – 2499 votes
	A Labour majority of 2500 – 3499 votes
	A Labour majority of 3500 – 4499 votes
	A Labour majority of 4500 – 5499 votes
	A Labour majority of 5500 – 6499 votes
	A Labour majority of 6500 – 7499 votes
	A Labour majority of 7500 votes or more

I’ve gone for “A majority of 500 or fewer for Watkins to a majority up to 499 for Labour”.

Mike Smithson