BPIX – Mail on Sunday Apr 17 Apr 10 LIB DEMS 32% 20% CONSERVATIVES 31% 38% LABOUR 28% 31% According to reports on SkyNews the Mail on Sunday’s pollster, BPIX/YouGov, has the Lib Dems in the lead. This is a sensational development and will add further to the woes at Cameron Towers. BPIX/YouGov, as I say every-time a survey comes out, operates on the YouGov platform using the YouGov panel but, one assumes, has its own methodology. Alas the firm…
UPDATED ComRes: S Mirror & Indy on Sunday Apr 17 Apr 13 CONSERVATIVES 31% 35% LIB DEMS 29% 21% LABOUR 27% 29% ICM Sunday Telegraph Apr 15 Apr 11 CONSERVATIVES 34% 37% LIB DEMS 27% 20% LABOUR 29% 31% But can Labour rely on the UNS? The polling excitement continues with a second poll showing that the Lib Dems have over-hauled Labour to move into second place. Also there’s an ICM poll where the fieldwork was carried out before the…
Recalling Frank Luntz’s Newsnight focus group The events of the past 48 hours have reminded me of the above clip (click on the picture to play) of the Frank Luntz’s Newsnight focus group that was carried out in September 2008. Then Nick Clegg was an almost total unknown and yet when exposed to selected voters on the same footing as Brown and Cameron they responded in almost exactly the same way as that which we have seen since Thursday evening….
What about 50/1 to win most seats? This has been one of Nick Clegg’s better weeks in office. A generally acknowledged win in the first debate – held on an even footing with the other two party leaders, which itself was a bonus on the usual situation – was followed up by a lot of very favourable coverage and yesterday’s outstanding YouGov poll, placing the Lib Dems within a 2% swing of having the largest share. In sport, the phrase…
YouGov daily poll Apr 16 Apr 15 CONSERVATIVES 33% 37% LABOUR 28% 31% LIB DEMS 30% 22% But can the UNS work with these sorts of shifts? So the rumours were right and the Lib Dems have over-taken Labour – at the expense of drops of 4 and 3 for the Tories and Labour. But how seriously can we take the UNS predictions with these sorts of changes? The truth is that nobody really knows how such a result would…
Reports are buzzing about that the Lib Dems have moved into second place in a poll due out tonight. I assume it is YouGov – no doubt we will find out soon. Mike Smithson
Betfair Politics Mike Smithson
I’ve just got back from Manchester to find an email waiting about the ComRes poll from Andrew Hawkins, CEO of ComRes. He writes:- “The final analysis of the ComRes instant poll for last night’s ITV News at Ten among those watching the First Election Debate, extrapolated across the GB adult population as a whole, puts the Conservatives on 35%, Labour on 28% and Liberal Democrats on 24%. This compares to the ComRes poll broadcast on ITV News at Ten on…