Will cabinet seats be the price of a deal?

The new political betting exchange Political Smarkets has put up an intriguing new bet – how many Lib Dems will be full Cabinet ministers on June 1st.

There are four options, none, one, two and three or more.

The firm prices its bets as percentages which after you have got used to it looks sensible – after all many punters tend to rate chances in this way before betting.

The none option on this market is currently at 49% which seems about right.

Mike Smithson