Lib Dems surge as Labour are back in the 20s
| ICM – Guardian | Mar 31 | Mar 26 |
|---|---|---|
| CONSERVATIVES | 38% | 39% |
| LABOUR | 29% | 31% |
| LIB DEMS | 23% | 19% |
| LAB to CON swing from 2005 | 6% | 5.5% |
How does this bode for the campaign?
Although less than 2 million viewers tuned in to the Channel 4 chancellors’ debate on Monday it generated a lot of associated publicity and tonight we see the benefit. A big boost for Vince’s party and Labour moving back into the 20s.
The changes above are with the last ICM poll not the last one from the pollster in that paper.
For me the most significant number is that Labour share. Below 30 and any hopes of clinging on in some way through a hung parliament must surely look forlorn.
As Julian Glover reports in the paper the moves are mostly driven by an increase in the likelihood to vote amongst Lib Dems which surely is the product of the Vince-led publicity.
For the Tories the fact that Labour is suffering more than them must give some encouragement for the campaign. Although it could lead to more Lib Dem incumbents holding on that should be more than balanced by gains from Labour.
Let’s see what tonight’s daily poll brings – that, of course, has not weighting on certainty to vote which is probably helping the Labour share.