What are the chances on the Ladbrokes Indy market? In an excellent review of the Welsh marginals on PB2 Meurig rather ducked out of a prediction for Blaenau Gwent – what was previously Labour strongest seat in Wales that was lost, of course, after the all-women short-list row in 2005 and then held onto by independent Dai Davies in the by election a year later. This is a pity because it could be key in trying to figure out the…
Was Campbell being unhelpful to Tony’s successor? On the face of it the Iraq inquiry is now a side-show to the big political drama in the UK – the fight by Labour to stop the Tories winning an outright majority in the coming general election. Labour’s key players at the time – Tony Blair and Alistair Campbell – have now moved on though it’s said that the latter is playing a behind the scenes role in supporting Mr. Brown. So…
Simon & Garfunkel – Mrs Robinsonby Salut-les-copains PaddyPower make it a 5/1 shot I don’t know much about the world of pop music but I’ve been a life-long fan of Simon & Garfunkel. So what are we to make of the PaddyPower bet at 5/1 that “Mrs. Robinson” will make to Number 1 this month? An extraordinary coincidence given the name and the plot of that classic movie “The Graduate”. Mike Smithson
Bet365 Should you be taking the 11/4 for 324 seat or fewer? Thanks to our regular betting poster, URW, for spotting this one – the 11/4 (in old money) or the 2.75 in the new parlance that Bet365 have on the Tories coming out with fewer that 325 seats. This total, of course, is the minimum that is required for a majority. Unlike the range of conventional hung parliament bets this covers you in all situations that Cameron Tories don’t…
Angus Reid Public Opinion It’s the only one showing them not shedding votes Our headline might sound counter-intuitive for the sixth survey in the PB/Angus Reid series, published last night, followed an established pattern and once again had 40-24-20 the smallest share for Labour of all the firms. Yet unlike all the other pollsters to have reported so far in 2010 Angus Reid is the only one that has the party currently led by Mr. Brown at the same level…
CON 41 % (38) LAB 28 % (30) LD 19 %(20) But Peter Riddell thinks its good for Gordon The second poll of the night, from Populus for the Times, is the first to show what could be real damage from the splits over Labour’s leadership. The figures above show the scale which will hit Labour hard because it comes from the pollster that has tended to produce the best numbers for the party and the lowest for the Tories…
CON 40% (40) LAB 24% (24) LD 20% (20) The least volatile pollster retains it reputation There’s a new poll this evening from PB’s pollster, Angus Reid Public Opinion which shows no change whatsoever on the last survey before Christmas. This is the fifth survey in the exclusive PB series which has built up a remarkable record for consistency. Since we started in October the Tories have been on 40 in three polls, and on 39 and 38 in the…
Is this how the political map could change? Philip Palfrey of the University of Sheffield has produced some fascinating graphic material to illustrate how the GB political map for what I think is England could change with different swings. Just look above and watch it change. A key element here is that the map shows all constituencies as being the same geographical size. He has other interesting material that I will feature in future posts. Philip asks me to note…