CON 32% (21.4)
LAB 35% (42.7)
LD 13% (18.4)
PC 13% (12.6)

But the numbers point to big Tory gains

In what I believe is only the second Wales-specific YouGov poll both Labour and the Tories have both moved up a point on the first such survey last November while the Lib Dems and PC have been knocked back a point each.

The comparisons above are with the 2005 general election outcome in the Principality.

If this is indeed what happens at the general election then the Tories could see ten possible gains which would make a significant contribution to the seat totals required nationally to secure a majority.

My understanding is that an overall increase of ten exceeds current internal Tory party projections.

So another survey that could brighten up Cameron and add to the gloom in Brown Central.

The Lib Dems will be uncomfortable to see their decline though how this will work in Lib Dem held seats we do not really know.

The LAB>CON swing in Wales of just over 8 9 percent is higher than that which we have been seeing in YouGov GB polls though it is about the same as in the latest Populus poll. The latest PB/Angus Reid poll was showing a LAB>CON swing of nine percent.

I cannot find the fieldwork dates for the Welsh survey. The poll was commissioned by ITV Wales – there’s a full report here.

Mike Smithson