CON 40% (40)
LAB 24% (24)
LD 20% (20)

The least volatile pollster retains it reputation

There’s a new poll this evening from PB’s pollster, Angus Reid Public Opinion which shows no change whatsoever on the last survey before Christmas.

This is the fifth survey in the exclusive PB series which has built up a remarkable record for consistency. Since we started in October the Tories have been on 40 in three polls, and on 39 and 38 in the others. Labour has also remained within two points.

A lot of this might be down to it following the Canadian approach in seeking to ensure a politically balanced sample. AR makes no allowance for false recall – the other UK pollsters that use the system do and that generally increases the gap between Labour and the Tories by three points.

The full data should be out later tonight together with details of other questions linked to Labour’s leadership issues.

Fieldwork for this latest AR poll took place from Friday to Sunday. The sample was about 2,000.

Mike Smithson